한국제도·경제학회

This study investigates the macroeconomic impacts of universal cash transfers versus differentiated cash transfers by the central government using the HANK and TANK models. First, to evaluate the effectiveness of universal cash transfers, a Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) model incorporating labor productivity heterogeneity and AR(1) shocks was employed. The results show that, in response to a cash transfer shock, GDP and consumption decline, increases in capital income tax and consumption tax are required, and inflation does not rise despite a reduction in the nominal interest rate. Second, to examine the effects of differentiated transfer, a Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) model was utilized. The analysis indicates that consumption increases; however, taxes and government debt also rise, and the disutility from labor and the burden of higher taxes offset the utility gains from increased consumption, resulting in a net decline in overall utility. Overall, the findings suggest that both universal and differentiated cash transfers have limited real effects. Specifically, (1) whether provided universally or differentially, cash transfers exert either negative or negligible effects on economic growth, and (2) while differential transfers may stimulate consumption, they require financing through higher public debt and taxation. These results imply that cash transfer policies should be carefully assessed in light of their macroeconomic consequences, consumption effects, and implications for fiscal sustainability.